Federal Reserve 'a tsakanin dutse da wuri mai wuya' yayin da ake tsai da shawara game da haɗin lada

Ma'aikatan Federal Reserve za su taru a wannan mako don ɗaya daga cikin taron siyasa mafi rashin tabbaci na banki na tsakiya a shekaru da yawa.

An tilasta wa Fed ya daidaita sakamakon matsala ta banki da ƙaruwa da ta ci gaba da zama fiye da maƙasudin, ana fatan cewa Fed za ta ɗaukaka haraji na lada da wata 0.25% sa'ad da ta wallafa shawarar siyasa ta sabuwar a ƙarfe 2:00 a rana ta Ƙarfe ET da rana ta Rabu. Wannan matakin zai kawo ƙarin lada na fed zuwa 4.75%-5%, mafi girma tun shekara ta 2006. Cuwar Fed Jerome Powell zai yi taron wasiƙu a ƙarfe 2:30 a jiya ET don ya bayyana shawarar Fed.

"Suna tsakanin dutse da wuri mai wuya," ya ce Wilmer Stith, mai kula da ɗakin ɗayan "Akwai matsala ta banki kuma da gaske yana da wuya sosai, yanayi mai ban sha'awa don Fed ta kasance a ciki."

A lokacin shaidarsa ta ɗan shekara a gaban Kongomin a farkon watan Maris, Shugaban Fed Jerome Powell ya ce bayani mai ƙarfi na tattalin arziki wataƙila zai motsa marmari "fiye da yadda ake tsammani a dā."

Bayan kwanaki kaɗan, FDIC ta ɗauki banki na 16 mafi girma a Amirka — Silicon Valley Bank — a matsayin mai karɓa, kuma hakan ya nuna kasawar banki na biyu a tarihin Amirka. A yammar ranar Lahadi, 12 ga Maris, Hukumar Federal, Ubangiji, da FDIC sun ɗauki mataki don su ɗauki kuɗin da ake ajiye  a banki da kuma kuɗin da ake ajiye a banki.

Masu sarauta sun kuma kama Signature Bank a ranar 12 ga Maris, kuma mako na baya, kasuwancin banki ya shirya ya ceci ƙasar First Republic da ke da matsala. Wasun First Republic sun kai ƙarshen tarihi a ranar Talata yayin da masu saka hannu suke tsoro cewa bangkin zai zama banki na huɗu na Amirka a wannan watan da ya kasa.

Shugaban Federal Reserve Jerome Powell yana ba da shaida a gaban Kwamitin Majalisa na Hidima ta Kuɗi a Kan Tudun Capitol, a ranar 08 ga Maris, 2023 a birnin Washington, DC. (Hoton Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images ne)

A wannan ƙarshen watanni da suka shige, manyan banki na Switzerland UBS da Credit Suisse sun haɗa kai don su ƙarfafa tsarin banki na Turai. Wannan Fed ta sake wallafa wani ra'ayi da yamma na Lahadi — a wannan lokaci a kan hanyoyin canjawa na duniya don a tabbata cewa kuɗin dolar ya ci gaba da yawa a dukan duniya.

Duk da haka, har ranar Talata da safiya, ƙarin bayani daga CME Group sun nuna masu saka hannu suna ba da zarafi na 85% ga Fed ya ɗaukaka haraji da kashi 25 a ranar Litinin.

"Idan suka daina kuma suka canja [ƙarin haɗari], wannan zai iya sa kasuwanci su gaskata cewa ba sa yaƙi da ƙaruwa sa'ad da ƙaruwa har ila matsala ce, kuma hakan zai ba ka ƙarin rance da kuɗin kuɗi ga kamfani da kuma ƙarin laifi a tattalin arziki," Stith ya ce.

Bayan shekara guda da suka yi fama da matsala guda (ƙaruwa) da kayan aiki guda (da ya fi ƙarin lada), Hukumar Federal ta yi ƙoƙari ta yi wani ƙalubale a cikin kwanaki goma da suka shige.

Kada ka ƙyale 'ƙarin ƙarin tafiya ta zo'

Ƙari ga sanar da shawarar ladar lada na sabuwar, Fed za ta kuma bayyana sabon taƙaita ta Na'urar Ilimi (SEP) a ranar Litinin, wadda ta haɗa da kalaman ma'aikatan don haɗin lada, ƙaruwa, rashin aiki, da ƙaruwa ta tattalin arziki bisa daidaita na wannan shekara da biyu na gaba, da kuma sakamako na dogon lokaci.

"[Kafin] Shugaban Jerome Powell ya amince da rashin tabbaci kuma ya nanata yardar Fed ta gyara tsarin idan yanayin a filin banki ya yi muni, wannan ba ya nufin cewa sabuwar taƙaita ta Ƙarƙashin Ilimi ba za ta ƙara nuna ƙarin ƙarin ƙarin

A watan Disamba, SEP na Fed ya ba da shawara cewa haɗin kai zai kai ƙarfin 5%-5.25% a wannan ƙarin tafiya. Shaidar Powell a farkon wannan watan ta nuna cewa wannan ra'ayin shi ne abin da zai bukaci canjawa daga banki na musamman.

A ranar 14 ga Maris, indeki na kuɗin sayarwa na watan Fabrairu ya nuna kuɗin sayarwa ba tare da abinci da kuzari ba - ko kuma wanda ake kira "ainihi" ƙaruwa - ya ƙaru 0.5% a watan da ya gabata a watan Fabrairu, ɗan sauri daga 0.4% da aka samu a kowace wata biyu da suka shige. A ranar 10 ga Maris, rahoton aiki na watan Fabrairu ya nuna cewa an kafa aikin kusan 311,000 a watan da ya shige bayan an ƙara aikin fiye da 500,000 a tattalin arziki a watan Janairu.

Wannan shi ne ƙarfin bayani na tattalin arziki da masu saka hannu suke ɗaukan Da yake an daina matsala a banki da ta rufe kasuwanci a dukan duniya kuma waɗannan ƙaruwa da kuma adadin ayyuka sun sa ƙarin haɗari na 50 ya ƙara.

Ko kuma kamar yadda Powell ya gaya wa masu shari'a a ranar 7 ga Maris: "Idan dukan bayanin ya nuna cewa ya dace a ƙara ƙaruwa da sauri, za mu kasance a shirye mu ƙara ƙarin haɗari."

Yayin da watan Fabrairu ya juya zuwa Watan Maris, ma'aikatan Fed suna yawan yin tarayya da ra'ayin cewa 5%-5.25% mafi girma na kuɗin Fed zai bukaci a gyara da yawa.

Kafin kasawar banki na wannan watan da kuma kafin lokaci na kwana goma na kwanciyar hankali na Fed kafin taron tsarinsa, ma'aikata da yawa na Fed suna kira su ɗaukaka haraji da yawa da aka yi ƙarin

Gwamna na Ƙasar Amirka Chris Waller ya yi gargaɗi a jawabinsa a ranar 2 ga Maris cewa idan ana ci gaba da ba da rahoto game da aiki da ƙaruwa, za a ƙara ƙaruwa fiye da yadda ake tsammani a dā a wannan shekarar.

Shugaban Ƙasar Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari, ɗaya daga cikin waɗanda suke yin suwu na FOMC, ya ce a farkon wannan watan zai dogara ga ɗaukaka haɗin kai fiye da yadda ya yi annabci a dā, yayin  da Shugaban Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic ya ce idan bayani ya ƙarfafa fiye da yadda ake tsammani, za a iya yin shari'a don ƙarin haɗari

Shugaban ƙasar Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari yana jawabi a lokacin tambaya a jama'ar Reuters a birnin New York a ranar 17 ga Fabrairu, 2016. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Stith ya ce: "Wannan ƙarfe ne." 25:25 Shin, ba za su yi aiki a cikin wannan hanya? Suna ɗaukaka 25 amma suna rage ƙarfinsu? Ba a tabbata yanzu daga ra'ayina cewa za su yi 25, [uban] ci gaba da yin tafiyar da yanayi mai girma. Ina ganin wannan bar ne da ya fi tsawo."

Babban ɗan siyasa na Goldman Jan Hatzius - wanda ya sa rai cewa Fed za ta tsaya a ranar Litinin - ya ce akwai "rashin tabbaci" game da hanyar bayan Maris, amma yana barin zato ba a canja ba don ƙarin rawa 25 a watan Mayu, Yuni, da Yuli, kuma yanzu yana sa rai cewa Fed zai kammala ƙarin ƙarin

Kuɗi yana bayyana

Ƙari ga daidaita cikakken aiki da kuɗin da ke da tsayawa, umurnin biyu na Fed yana da hannu na uku da ba a sani ba - kwanciyar hankali na kuɗi.

Wannan "aikin uku" shi ne abin da aka sa a cikin matsi mafi girma a lokacin matsalar banki na wannan watan.

Fed ta ce za ta yi amfani da kayan dokokin da take amfani da su don bi da rashin kwanciyar hankali na kuɗi, kuma bangkin na musamman ya kafa wurin rance rance na gaggawa don ya ba da kuɗi ga banki don ya tabbata cewa banki za su iya cika dukan kuɗin da ake ɗaukan.

Wannan tsarin ya mai da dukan kuɗin da ake ajiye— waɗanda aka insurans da kuma waɗanda ba su da insurans — a dukan tsarin kuɗi na Amirka.

Har yanzu, banki sun ɗauki kusan dola biliyan 12 kawai daga wannan tsarin— daidai da ƙaramin ɗan kuɗin da aka cire daga Bankin Silicon Valley kafin ya faɗa. Duk da haka, bankai sun ɗauki rance na biliyan 153 na dolar ta hanyar rance na al'ada na Fed, wanda ake kira ƙarshen rance, kuma hakan ya nuna cewa shi ne mafi girma tun lokacin matsalar kuɗi na shekara ta 2008.

Kuma yayin da ƙasar Federasi take amfani da kayayyakinta don ta ƙarfafa gaba gaɗin wannan tsarin, waɗannan ƙoƙarce - ƙoƙarcen sun yi aiki tare a Washington, D.C.

Sa'ad da take magana a gaban Senate mako na baya, Sakataren Kuɗi Janet Yellen ta ce tana lura da matsi a tsarin banki don ta tabbata cewa matsaloli a Bankin Silicon Valley da Signature ba sa yaɗuwa zuwa wasu banki.

Yellen ta tabbatar wa masu lauyan Senate a ranar Lahadi na wuri cewa tsarin banki na Amirka "mai kyau" ne duk da kasawar banki na kwanan nan.

Sakataren Kuɗi na Amirka Janet Yellen tana tambayoyi game da shiri na gwamnati ta Biden bayan faɗuwar masu ba da bashi uku na Amirka har da Bankin Silicon Valley da Bankin Signature, yayin da take ba da shaida a gaban Kwamitin Kuɗi na Senate game da roƙon da Shugaban Amirka Joe Biden ya yi na shekara ta 2024, a kan Tudun Capitol a Washington, Amirka, 16 ga Maris,  2023. REUTERS/Mary F. CalvertMore

Waɗannan matsi a tsarin banki suna iya yin aiki don su cim ma wasu makasudin Fed, musamman da yake yana da alaƙa da ƙarfafa yanayin kuɗi.

"Fed tana son ta ƙara tsari na kuɗi da kuma bam, sun samu wannan cikin mako ɗaya," Stith ya ce.

In ji bincike na ra'ayi na ma'aikacin rance na Fed, yawancin banki sun riga sun ƙara ƙarfafa mizanai game da rance-rance na sayarwa da kasuwanci a ƙarshen shekara ta ƙarshe.

"Idan an ƙyale rance ya isa ya sha kan aiki, haɗarin shi ne cewa ƙarin ƙaruwa na rashin aiki, ƙarin rashin adalci da mizanai masu tsanani na rance a ƙarshe za su iya bayyana," ya ce Hunter na Capital Economics.